師資人員 - 蔡孝忠
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姓名：蔡孝忠
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Email：
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個人網站：
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學歷：
國立台灣大學土木工程學研究所博士 國立台灣大學土木工程學研究所碩士 國立成功大學水利及海洋工程系學士
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經歷：
淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系 副教授(2018-) 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系 助理教授(2014-2018) 美國海軍研究院(Naval Postgraduate School)博士後研究員(2011-2014) 中央氣象局氣象預報中心 副研究員(2007-2011)
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類別：專任
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職稱：副教授兼系主任
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授課領域：
水文學、 水土保持工程、 地理資訊系統在工程上之應用、 數值方法
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研究專長：
颱風、 水文氣象
期刊論文
| 學年度 | 著作 | 著作人 |
|---|---|---|
| 112 | ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Six Tropical Cyclones That Formed during a Long-Lasting Rossby Wave Breaking Event in the Western North Pacific, Atmosphere 15(5), 610 | Tsai, Hsiao-chung |
| 112 | High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022), Atmosphere 15(3), 353 | Tsai, Hsiao-chung |
| 112 | Evaluation of Multiweek Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Philippines, Weather and Forecasting, 38, 2095–2110. | Tierra, M. C. M., T.T. Lo, H.C. Tsai, and M. Q. Villafuerte |
| 111 | 2~4週颱風預報之發展與挑戰, 中國土木水利工程學會會刊 50(3), p.17-21 | 蔡孝忠 |
| 111 | Critical Pre-Formation Decision Flowchart to Apply Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions in Eastern North Pacific, Atmosphere, 14, 616 | Elsberry, R.L.; Tsai, H.-C.; Capalbo, C.; Chin, W.-C.; Marchok, T.P. |
| 110 | Opportunity for Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions from Pre-Formation to Ending Stage: Eastern North Pacific 2021 Season, Atmosphere 2022 13(7), 1008 | Russell L. Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Wei-Chia Chin; Timothy P. Marchok |
| 110 | Assessing the potential predictability of tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines on weekly timescales, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 32(5), p.741-754 | Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II; Tzu-Ting Lo; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Esperanza O. Cayanan |
| 110 | Application of Weighted Analog Intensity Prediction (WAIP) guidance on Philippine tropical cyclone events, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 32(5), p.669-691 | Robb P. Gile; John Carlo S. Sugui; Juanito S. Galang; Esperanza O. Cayanan; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Yung-Lan Lin; Ai-Mei Chia; Ping-Yu Lin; Kuo-Chen Lu; Ben Jong-Dao Jou |
| 109 | Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions, Atmosphere 12(7), 847 | Russell L. Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Wei-Chia Chin; Timothy P. Marchok |
| 109 | Opportunity for Early Warnings of Typhoon Lekima from Two Global Ensemble Model Forecasts of Formation with 7-Day Intensities along Medium-Range Tracks, Atmosphere 11(11), 1162 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry; Wei-Chia Chin; Timothy P. Marchok |
| 109 | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks, Atmosphere 11(9), 1002 | Russell L. Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Wei-Chia Chin; Timothy P. Marchok |
| 108 | Combined Three-Stage 7-Day Weighted Analog Intensity Prediction Technique for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Demonstration of Optimum Performance, Weather and Forecasting 34(6), p.1979-1998 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 107 | Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 54(3), p.421-430 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 106 | Ending Storm Version of the 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Prediction Technique for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, Weather and Forecasting 32(6), p.2229-2235 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 105 | Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Weather and Forecasting 32(1), p.141-147 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell. L. Elsberry |
| 104 | Skill of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Guidance Relative to Weighted-Analog Technique, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 52(3), pp.281–290 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; R. L. Elsberry |
| 104 | Seven-day intensity and intensity spread predictions for western North Pacific tropical cyclones, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 51(4), p.331-342 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 104 | Weighted Analog Technique for Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Weather and Forecasting 30(5), p.1321-1333 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 103 | Improved tropical cyclone intensity and intensity spread prediction in bifurcation situations, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 50(1), pp.669-680 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 103 | Applications of situation-dependent intensity and intensity spread predictions based on a weighted analog technique, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 50(4), pp.507-518 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 102 | Extended-range forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone events during 2012 using the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions, Weather and Forecasting 29 ,pp.271-288 | Russell L. Elsberry; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Mary S. Jordan |
| 102 | Situation-dependent intensity skill metric and intensity spread guidance for western North Pacific tropical cyclones, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 50(3), pp.297-306 | Elsberry, R. L.; H.-C. Tsai |
| 102 | Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions, Journal of Hydrology 506, pp.42-54 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 102 | Objective verifications and false alarm analyses of western North Pacific tropical cyclone event forecasts by the ECMWF 32-day ensemble, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 49(4), pp.409-420 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry; Mary S. Jordan; Frédéric Vitart |
| 101 | Detection of tropical cyclone track changes from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Geophysical Research Letters 40(4), pp.797-801 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 99 | Investigation of the impacts of vegetation distribution and evaporative cooling on synthetic urban daytime climate using a coupled LES-LSM model, Hydrological Processes 25(10), pp. 1574–1586 | Huang, Hsin-Yuan; Steven A. Margulis; Chia Ren Chu; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung |
| 99 | Tropical cyclone–like vortices detection in the NCEP 16-day ensemble system over the western North Pacific in 2008: Application and Forecast Evaluation, Weather and Forecasting 26(1), pp.77-93 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Lu, Kuo-Chen Lu; Russell L. Elsberry; Lu, Mong-Ming; Sui, Chung-Hsiung |
| 97 | Maximum covariance analysis of typhoon surface wind and rainfall relationships in Taiwan, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol 48, pp.997–1016 | Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Lee, Tim Hau |
研討會論文
| 學年度 | 會議期間 | 著作 | 著作人 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 20231211~20231215 | Investigating the Impacts of the Large-Scale Environments on the Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skills Using the 46-Day ECMWF Ensemble, AGU Fall Meeting 2023 | Tsai, Hsiao-chung; Hsu, Han-yu; Lo, Tzu-ting; Chen, Meng-shih; Hsueh, Hung-yu; Lo, Shih-hsuan |
| 112 | 20230822~20230824 | Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific Using the NCEP and ECMWF Ensemble Models, 9th NOAA Ensemble Users Workshop | Tsai, Hsiao-chung; Lo, Tzu-ting; Chen, Meng-shih |
| 111 | 20230703~20230707 | Monitoring Global Tropical Cyclone Activities on Subseasonal Timescale using the CWB TC Tracking System, WWRP/WCRP S2S Summit | Tsai, Hsiao-chung; Lo, Tzu-ting; Chen, Meng-shih; Chen, Yun-jing; Kuo, Jui-ling; Hsu, Han-yu |
| 111 | 20230423~20230428 | Relationship between the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill and the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon in the ECMWF Monthly Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2023 | Tsai, Hsiao-chung; Lo, Tzu-ting; Chen, Meng-shih; Chen, Yun-jing; Kuo, Jui-ling; Hsu, Han-yu |
| 110 | 20211025~20211027 | Monitoring Global Tropical Cyclone Activities in Weeks 1-4, WCRP Workshop on Extremes in Climate Prediction Ensembles(ExCPEns) | Tzu-Ting Lo; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Meng-Shi Chen; Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II |
| 110 | 20210801~20210806 | Advanced Global Model Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation, and Intensity Predictions along Medium-Range Tracks, AOGS 2021 | Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Wei-Chia Chin, and Timothy P. Marchok |
| 109 | 20210412~20210415 | Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command & Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2021 Tropical Cyclone Conference | Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Russell L. Elsberry, Wei-Chia Chin, and Timothy P. Marchok |
| 109 | 20201013~20201015 | 1-4 週颱風系集預報評估與比較, 109年天氣分析與預報研討會 | 蔡孝忠; 羅資婷; 陳孟詩; 陳昀靖 |
| 108 | 20191209~20191213 | Evaluations of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Using the Hindcasts and Real-time Forecasts from the NCEP 35-Day Global Ensemble, AGU Fall Meeting | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Tzu-Ting Lo; Meng-Shih Chen; Chia-I She; Wen-Hsin Huang |
| 108 | 20190905~20190906 | Climate Monitoring and Forecast in CWB, 第二屆氣候論壇(CLIMATE HOTPOTS IN ACTION (CHIA) FORUM) | 陳孟詩; 李明營; 羅資婷; 劉人鳳; 張惠玲; 郭芮伶; 陳昀靖; 陳韋廷; 蔡孝忠 |
| 107 | 20190402~20190405 | Preliminary Evaluations of the Extended-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific and Taiwan Area by using the ECMWF S2S Forecasts, Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles | Lo, T.-T.; Y.-J. Chen; H.-C. Tsai; M.-S. Chen |
| 107 | 20190306~20190308 | Bias Correction of the Extended-Range Tropical Cyclone Formation and Activity Forecasts by Using the 20-Year Reforecasts, 13th Conference on Meso-Scale Convective Systems and High-Impact Weather in East Asia (ICMCS-XIII) | Tsai, H.-C.; T.-T. Lo; M.-S. Chen; C.-I. She |
| 106 | 20180603~20180608 | Objective Detections and Evaluations of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the Reanalysis Datasets, AOGS Annual Meeting 2018 | Han-Fang LIN; Hsiao-Chung TSAI; Wei-Chia CHIN; Russell ELSBERRY |
| 106 | 20180603~20180608 | Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification by Using the Characteristics of the Large-scale Environment and Satellite Images, AOGS Annual Meeting 2018 | Yu-Yuan CHANG; Hsiao-Chung TSAI; Chia-I SHE; Russell ELSBERRY |
| 106 | 20180603~20180608 | Improvement of Weighted Analog Intensity Prediction for Different Stages of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, AOGS Annual Meeting | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell Elsberry |
| 106 | 20180415~20180420 | Bias-Correction of the 14-Day NCEP GEFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by Using the Reforecast Dataset, AMS 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Tzu-Ting Lo; Meng-Shih Chen; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 106 | 20180415~20180420 | Improved Weighted-Analog Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in Pre-Formation and Ending Stages, AMS 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell Elsberry |
| 106 | 20171205~20171207 | EXTENDING THE LEAD TIME AND IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC, Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 106 | 20171023~20171026 | Evaluations of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the NCEP GEFSv11 Reforecasts, 42nd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Pang-Cheng Chen; Tzu-Ting Lo; Meng-Shih Chen; Ren-Feng Liu |
| 105 | 20170424~20170428 | Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results, EGU General Assembly 2017 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Pang-Cheng Chen; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 105 | 20170306~20170310 | SEVEN-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES, US PACOM Joint Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Program Assembly | Russell Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai |
| 105 | 20161004~20161006 | 西北太平洋颱風快速增強之機率預報模式開發, 105年天氣分析與預報研討會 | 佘佳宜; 蔡孝忠; 張麗秋 |
| 105 | 20161004~20161006 | 利用SHIPS 開發資料改進颱風強度類比預報模式之研究, 105年天氣分析與預報研討會 | 林碩彥; 蔡孝忠 |
| 105 | 20161004~20161006 | ECMWF 系集模式之10 天颱風路徑預報評估, 105年天氣分析與預報研討會 | 林吉堃; 陳怡伶; 蔡孝忠 |
| 104 | 20160417~20160422 | Guidance-on-Guidance for Bifurcations in Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones, AMS 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Elsberry, Russell L.; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung |
| 104 | 20160417~20160422 | Extended-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by the ECMWF 32-Day Ensemble and its Reforecast Data for Water Resources Management, AMS 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; R. L. Elsberry |
| 104 | 20160417~20160422 | Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, AMS 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; R. L. Elsberry |
| 104 | 20160417~20160422 | Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, AMS 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; R. L. Elsberry |
| 104 | 20150915~20150917 | 颱風強度統計預報基準模式開發及不確定性估計, 104年天氣分析與預報研討會 | TSAI, HSIAO-CHUNG; Elsberry, L. Russell; Lin, Shuo-Yen |
| 103 | 20141202~20141210 | SPECIFYING INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, WMO 8th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) | Russell L. Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Charles Sampson |
| 103 | 20140916~20140916 | ECMWF全球系集預報模式於颱風生成及路徑展期預報之應用與評估, 103年天氣分析與預報研討會=2014 Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting | TSAI, HSIAO-CHUNG; Russell L. Elsberry |
| 103 | 20140916~20140916 | 颱風強度預報及誤差不確定性之客觀預報指引開發, 103年天氣分析與預報研討會=2014 Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting | TSAI, HSIAO-CHUNG; Russell L. Elsberry |
專書
| 學年度 | 出版日期 | 專書名稱 | 著作人 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 2016-02-01 00:00:00 | Opportunities and challenges in dynamical and predictability studies of tropical cyclone events | Elsberry, Russell L.; Tsai, Hsiao-Chung |
研究計畫(科技部)
| 年度 | 計畫名稱 | 參與人 | 計畫時間 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 高衝擊天氣之氣象防災資料校驗應用及評估計畫-颱風快速增強預報之改進與預報技術來源分析研究(子計畫四)(III) | 蔡孝忠 | 2024-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 112 | 高衝擊天氣之氣象防災資料校驗應用及評估計畫-颱風快速增強預報之改進與預報技術來源分析研究(子計畫四)(II) | 蔡孝忠 | 2023-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 111 | 高衝擊天氣之氣象防災資料校驗應用及評估計畫-颱風快速增強預報之改進與預報技術來源分析研究(子計畫十)(I) | 蔡孝忠 | 2022-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 110 | 台灣地區豪大雨預報實驗計畫 (I-III)-子計畫：颱風快速增強之環境、結構特徵及誤報分析研究(3/3) | 蔡孝忠 | 2021-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 109 | 台灣地區豪大雨預報實驗計畫 (I-III)-子計畫：颱風快速增強之環境、結構特徵及誤報分析研究(2/3) | 蔡孝忠 | 2020-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 108 | 台灣地區豪大雨預報實驗計畫 (I-III)-子計畫：颱風快速增強之環境、結構特徵及誤報分析研究(1/3) | 蔡孝忠 | 2019-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 107 | 台灣區域大氣水文觀測與預報實驗-子計畫：颱風快速增強特徵辨識與機率預報研究 | 蔡孝忠 | 2018-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 106 | 年代際氣候變遷下臺灣地區都會與集水區特異天氣降雨分析與展期預報-子計畫:颱風展期預報於水庫集水區防災及水資源應用評估之研究(III) | 蔡孝忠 | 2017-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 105 | 年代際氣候變遷下臺灣地區都會與集水區特異天氣降雨分析與展期預報-子計畫:颱風展期預報於水庫集水區防災及水資源應用評估之研究(II) | 蔡孝忠 | 2016-08-01 00:00:00 |
| 104 | 年代際氣候變遷下臺灣地區都會與集水區特異天氣降雨分析與展期預報-子計畫:颱風展期預報於水庫集水區防災及水資源應用評估之研究(I) | 蔡孝忠 | 2015-08-01 00:00:00 |
研究計畫(非科技部)
| 年度 | 計畫名稱 | 參與人 | 計畫時間 | 補助/委託機構 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 熱帶氣旋偵測及預報評估委託案(III) | 蔡孝忠 | 2024-03-01 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 111 | 「颱風強度機率預報模式委託案（Ⅱ）」 | 蔡孝忠 | 2023-03-01 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 111 | 「熱帶氣旋偵測及預報評估委託案(Ⅱ)」 | 蔡孝忠 | 2023-03-01 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 110 | 颱風強度機率預報模式委託案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2022-02-14 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 110 | 熱帶氣旋偵測及預報評估委託案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2022-02-14 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 109 | 季內尺度歷史預報之颱風預報應用系統(2/2) | 蔡孝忠 | 2021-03-17 00:00:00 | 交通部中央氣象局 |
| 109 | 颱風強度預報模式更新委託案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2021-02-24 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 108 | 季內尺度歷史預報之颱風預報應用系統(1/2) | 蔡孝忠 | 2020-05-22 00:00:00 | 交通部中央氣象局 |
| 107 | 「季內尺度颱風預報評估系統(2/2)」委外案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2019-03-20 00:00:00 | 交通部中央氣象局 |
| 106 | 熱帶氣旋監測資訊系統更新委託案(II) | 蔡孝忠 | 2018-05-09 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 106 | 季內尺度颱風預報評估系統(1/2) | 蔡孝忠 | 2018-04-13 00:00:00 | 交通部中央氣象局 |
| 106 | 熱帶氣旋監測資訊系統更新委託案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2017-08-24 00:00:00 | 雲灣資訊有限公司 |
| 105 | 106年度西北太平洋熱帶氣旋展期預報應用系統 | 蔡孝忠 | 2017-01-25 00:00:00 | 交通部中央氣象局 |
| 104 | 「105年度西北太平洋熱帶氣旋展期預報應用評估系統」委外案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2016-02-04 00:00:00 | 交通部中央氣象局 |
| 103 | 颱風強度統計預報基準模式開發委外案 | 蔡孝忠 | 2015-04-29 00:00:00 | 中央氣象局 |
